Evidence

Via RealGM: The arguments people give when predicting if LeBron James will remain in Cleveland or eventually end up elsewhere are rarely backed with substantive reasoning. Here are ten reasons why the Knicks like their chances of signing LeBron next summer.

10. Cash. Over the same five years, LeBron would earn $4.14 million less signing with the Knicks than re-signing with the Cavs as a free-agent. The Cavs can offer an extra year, but there is little reason to think the security of a 6th season will be decisive. If LeBron put much value on security, he would have sought a longer-term contract in 2006 rather than the 3-year extension he did sign. If security is what he is after, LeBron would have already signed an extension this off-season. Given the relatively small difference between the Cavs’ and Knicks’ 5-year max offers – and given the mountain of endorsement dollars that could come LeBron’s way if he lands in New York – LeBron could have a significant financial incentive to sign with the Knicks.

9. Talent. The Knicks’ roster, though young and unproven, has the 20-PPG potential of Danilo Gallinari, a two-way wing with upside like Wilson Chandler, and a scoring big in rookie Jordan Hill. All three have higher ceilings than any non-Lebron Cavs. A roster deep with quality role players but not elite talent (the most apt way to describe the Cavs minus LeBron) is only enough to give a great player what he needs to have a successful regular season. Winning in the playoffs requires finding another impact player who can help carry the load. The Knicks have the type of young players who can develop into major pieces next to a superstar and their salary cap is set up to allow the team to bid for other top free-agents in the near term.

8. Attracting free-agents. LeBron may realize that getting future free-agents to follow him onto the big stage in New York would be easier than getting them to join him in Cleveland.

7. 2011. Much is made of the fact that Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries remain on the Knick books. Yet both contracts expire just one year later, freeing up $18 million of cap room that puts the Knicks in position to offer another max contract in 2011 when New York-born Carmelo Anthony is set to hit the free-agent market.

6. Mobley. Cuttino Mobley’s contract, 80% of which is covered by insurance, gives the Knicks a valuable trade chip the team can use to remove more salary from the 2010 ledger. Consider that the payout of $7.6 million of insurance for Mobley’s contract would more than offset Jeffries’ $6.9 million salary in 2010, and the Knicks could throw in an additional $3 million in the trade. The Knicks can make taking Jeffries' contract off their hands very affordable for another club.

5. Buyouts. If the Knicks are a few million dollars short of the cap room needed to offer a second max contract in 2010, look for Donnie Walsh to engineer a buyout of the 2010-2011 season on the contracts of Curry and/or Jeffries. Because this is the final year of these contracts, the Knicks would receive dollar-for-dollar cap relief on any buyout. For instance, offering 80% of the salary due on the last season of these two contracts would buy the Knicks more than $3.5 million of additional cap room.

4. The salary cap. Since the NBA league office announced its projections that the salary cap will decline next season, several positive economic indicators were released showing that the recession may already have ended. If true, the NBA’s salary cap might not drop nearly as much as projected if it even drops at all. But because Danny Ferry signed Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon and Leon Powe to 2-year contracts, the Cavs will not have room for a second max free-agent next summer even if the cap goes up. It might therefore be a checkmate move if Walsh ekes out enough cap room to be able to offer two max contracts in 2010. LeBron’s decision might be between staying in Cleveland with the Cavs’ roster as is or jumping to New York with Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh.

3. The luxury tax. In New York, LeBron could be assured of joining an organization that would spare no expense in pursuit of multiple championships. Cavs’ ownership has never pulled back on spending but that could change. Dan Gilbert’s deal to bring in Chinese investment, spun as a bold marketing initiative, may have had more to do with cash reserves drying up. Once they’re out of cap room, the Knicks would never hesitate to use their mid-level exception, take on more and more salary each year and pay exorbitant luxury tax bills, to keep renewing LeBron's supporting cast. The coffers at MSG are effectively bottomless.

2. The Yankees. The Yankees have emerged as the best team in baseball and are poised for another championship run. At some point, CC Sabathia may confide to his good pal, one of the Yankees' most famous fans, ‘There’s nothing like winning in New York.’

1. The heart. Big life decisions like the one LeBron will have in less than a year are usually made more on emotion than cold reason. Is home where LeBron’s heart is or does he yearn for the spotlight of Broadway? We don’t know the answer to that yet. But last week, just before letting us know that he plans to become a free-agent after the coming season, LeBron said he is “not ashamed of anything in Cleveland.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement, especially in contrast to the reverential words LeBron used to describe how he feels stepping on the floor at Madison Square Garden. The worry for Cavs fans is that LeBron’s tone seems to be creeping closer to the 'It’s not you, it’s me' line of reasoning, an explanation vaguely reminiscent of 'The heart wants what the heart wants.'

Some interesting food for thought from Hoopsworld.com -- So the question is this: If LeBron wins a ring this season and (possibly back-to-back next season) does that make him more or less likely to stay on Cleveland?

It’s a very intriguing question. At the end of the day, I think LeBron would actually be MORE likely to leave Cleveland for New York if he delivered a couple of championships to the denizens of Akron and Cleveland and all of Ohio. Maybe he would feel more comfortable moving after winning a title in a town so desperate for a ring? If he won back-to-back titles, would hometown fans be slightly more understanding if he gave them two parades?

I’ll also say this – think back to MJ in 1993. After winning three titles in a row, the best player in the league at the time (Michael Jordan) got bored and felt he didn’t have much left to prove. Thus, he decided to quit the sport altogether and try his hand at minor league baseball.

There was nobody that could have predicted that turn of events. So I do have to laugh when I hear analysts state resolutely that there is 0% chance that LeBron would ever even consider leaving Cleveland. If LeBron knew for certain that he wanted to spend the rest of his career in Cleveland, he could sign a seven-year max extension tonight. The reason LeBron chose to include an early-termination in his contract was because he wanted to keep his options open.

Lastly – regarding the money issue: Nike (among other multi-national corporations) would gladly cover the (relatively) nominal difference between the contracts he could sign in Cleveland vs. the one in NY. LeBron is focused on big money – not simply a few extra million in a basketball contract. King James is looking at the big picture.

Odds are he probably stays in Cleveland. But nothing is set in stone. Stranger things have happened – like Michael Jordan shagging flies in Birmingham, Alabama. MJ (LBJ’s hero) was thirsty for a new challenge and went to an extreme. What if LeBron felt like he desperately needed a new mountain to climb? What would be a greater and more rewarding challenge than heading to New York and putting another moribund franchise on his back and carrying them to a title under the bright lights of Broadway…

Baseball insider Joel Sherman wrote the following for Sports Illustrated today:

Rare basketball note: James Knicks-bound?

A couple folks inside the Yankees' clubhouse say they believe that LeBron James will be headed to New York as a Knick in a couple years. How they know this, well, they didn't say. But my guess would be that Sabathia, who knows James from his Cleveland days, expressed this opinion to them. I am sure he wouldn't give away any secret like this publicly, so there's no sense in me even asking him. But it's something to watch for.

Magic center Dwight Howard doesn't believe that the Knicks will have trouble landing a pair of top-flight free agents in the summer of 2010.

"You know, a lot of people would love to play in New York," Howard said.

"Not only just because of the city, but the opportunities for people to say they were on that stage."

Howard doesn't believe that the rough seasons the team has suffered through recently will play a factor in the decision of guys like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh.

"Everybody says [it is in decline] just because they've had a couple of bad seasons," Howard said.

"It's still a place that has a lot of history. When people play there, it's like the basketball spirits are still in the arena."

Lately because of the Cav's dominance theres been more and more LeBron is staying talk lately.

We'll when the Cavilers took on the Nets last night LeBron decided to get the ball rolling on the 2010 chatter again.

In an article entitled TOO GOOD TO BE KING FOR 'BRON TO EXIT TOWN they quote LeBron saying:
Alas, in a brief pre-game talk with reporters before scoring 30, LeBron did not volunteer how pleased he is to see the Xanadu project shaping up so nicely for his potential arrival.

However, if just to needle those predicting his signing of an extension this summer, or to keep a light on in the World's Most Famous Arena, or just because he cannot help himself, James playfully threw out one tidbit.

Asked his preference to continue his friendly rivalry with Wade either inside the conference or in NBA finals, LeBron offered:

"Maybe we'll go against each other in practice, that would be fun" before later adding, "I don't mean in Miami."

If James didn't mean in Cleveland, then he's not about winning as much as he insists.

LeBron could've meant any number of things there, implying Wade coming to Cleveland, playing with Team USA(but that wouldnt be for a few years so prob not), or a completely different team they would sign with together. He might have just been trying to say "I'm not leaving to Miami." But with not many teams having the room to sign 2 stars in 2010 (Cleveland technically will as of right now, but they need to worry about signing some pieces to keep LeBron happy next year too), LeBron got 2010 the chatter going again, not that it had really ever stopped.

In Sunday's New York Post, Steve Serby asked Nate Robinson "Give LeBron (James) a recruiting pitch to come to the Knicks." Here's how he answered:

Well, he already knows the city would be his. He's already on billboards and everything in New York City. It'll be sellouts. . . . The crowds are gonna love him regardless. There's like no other place like playing here in the city. This is the best city . . . and (the Knicks) have the best colors - orange, white and blue. I'd tell him he can probably design any kind of jersey he wanted (laughs). We'll have a different jersey for every game - we'll let you do that if you come to the Knicks.

If I were Nate, I would have added, "and I'll be gone too, so the team will finally get away from interacting with crowd, saluting video game players, stop being a laughingstock and start focusing on winning basketball games." But thats just because I watch Nate every night and know he's not a winner, he probably thinks of himself differently...

For the full interview go to http://www.nypost.com/seven/03012009/sports/knicks/serbys_sunday_q__a_wi...

C.C. Sabathia starred in Cleveland for years before taking a short detour to Milwaukee and then signing with the Yankees this summer. Sabathia will provide a good test case for what its like when a superstar leaves Cleveland and lands in New York. He also happens to be friends with LeBron James. Sabathia downplays his relationship with LeBron, but you can be sure the two will have a discussion about NY between now and July 1, 2010. The pitcher gave an indication of how that conversation might go when he said LBJ would be a perfect fit in New York in Sunday's New York Post:

Q: You know LeBron (James)?

A: I got a chance to watch him when he was in high school.

Q: Knicks fans want to know if you'll help them recruit LeBron.

A: I'll do my best (chuckles).

Q: What kind of guy is he?

A: He's a great dude, especially for as big a superstar as he is. . . . He's real humble.

Q: Do you think LeBron would be a good fit for New York?

A: I do, I really do. The biggest city in the world . . . the biggest stage. It would be the perfect place for him.

To read the full interview, including C.C.'s casual mention that he's only 6 pounds lighter than his heaviest weight ever (315 pounds), head to http://www.nypost.com/seven/02222009/sports/yankees/serbys_sunday_q__a_w...

A very good article by ESPN’s Chris Sheridan here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=sheridan_chris&pag...

The supposed “bombshell” he refers to is actually not a bombshell it all – Stern simply stated that the salary cap will probably decreases a bit over the next few seasons. It is all hypothetical at this point. But either way – it only means a few million plus-or-minus towards the 2010 cap-number. As we have known for a while, there is no way the Knicks can keep both Lee and Nate Rob, regardless if the cap is at 60 or 57 million.

But the article does a great job of breaking down the Knicks 2010 cap-commitments; including the phantom cap holds that all too often gets overlooked.

First and foremost, let’s get this out of the way – there is NO way the Knicks commit any 2010 money to Nate Robinson. For reasons to numerous to list here; Nate is not part of the long-term plans for a championship franchise. He is simply too much of a gamble. So Walsh’s main goal for the next few days (and then next summer) is to try and pawn off Nate with Jefferies expiring contract. If they have to lose Nate for nothing in 2010, so be it – but Walsh and company will not let him eat into their Twenty-Ten plans.

As for D Lee – that is a whole different story…
Question is – would you rather lock up Lee at $10 million (you know he’d love to be here and you know what your getting), or take a chance (a CHANCE) at landing a guy like Joe Johnson or Dirk Nowitzki?