Chad Ford
ESPN did a story regarding the future outlook of all the teams in the NBA using some crazy math, long story short, they say odds are against the Knicks and Donnie's master plan of rebuilding. ESPN Reports: 21. New York Knicks | Future Power Rating: 465 PLAYERS-----MANAGEMENT-----MONEY-----MARKET-----DRAFT The assumption for the past year or so has been that the Knicks' future is really bright. But a closer examination reveals that assumption may have been little more than wishful thinking. Yes, the Knicks have a lot of money to spend in 2010 and an owner, James Dolan, who is eager to write the checks. Yes, New York is one of the top player destinations in the NBA, for the city itself, for the MSG atmosphere and for the endorsement possibilities. Yes, they have the most player-friendly coach in the league, Mike D'Antoni, whose fun, up-tempo style of play is something many players crave -- and D'Antoni also has strong personal relationships with potential free agents LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and Chris Bosh, thanks to his stint as an assistant coach on Team USA. And yes, GM Donnie Walsh is a legend who, once upon a time, helped turn the Pacers into a championship contender. But here's the problem: The Knicks' current roster is a mess, and it won't be easy to fill in all the potholes, even with an expected $25 million in cap room. Our assumption here is that New York won't land LeBron James (if that changes, they'll shoot up these ratings) and will probably have a summer haul more akin to what the Pistons did last summer. Two solid free agents would be a start. But what about the supporting cast? Danilo Gallinari looks promising. Wilson Chandler is a contributor. Jordan Hill might help down the road. David Lee and Nate Robinson could also be part of the core, but both are unrestricted free agents next summer and their future with the team is seriously in doubt. Factor in this, as well: Utah owns the Knicks' 2010 first-round draft pick, likely a high lottery pick. (Ouch!) So all in all, it's unlikely we'll see the Knicks' fortunes change as dramatically as some expect from 2010 to 2013. Playoff team? Plausible. Contender? Not so much. First, I do like the call out of *if* LeBron comes this changes dramatically. The thing that bothers me about this is they basically list all the reason players will come here in 2010 and in 2011, and then say "but they probably won't come" and give no explanation. Doesn't make much sense to me. The list out the draw of the city, the endless supply of money, the most cap room in the league, one of the most player friendly coaches in the league who has strong relationships with the top free agents, and some promising young players... Those are some pretty compelling agruments, maybe they don't factor into the voodoo math, but I think they will play a large role in 231 days.
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Good article by Chad Ford on the future of the Knicks and Gallanari's potential impact: Knicks GM Donnie Walsh said something to me this summer that I haven't been able to get out of my head. Walsh said that the future of the Knicks lies with Danilo Gallinari ... not a certain free-agent-to-be superstar in Cleveland that Walsh can't talk about. From Walsh's perspective having the cap room to lure a free agent wasn't going to be enough to lure a top talent to New York. Nor was having the most player-friendly coach in the league, Mike D'Antoni. The best players in the league want to play with other great players, Walsh reasoned. The Knicks need at least one other potential superstar on their roster to help convince a top-tier free agent that New York has a shot at winning in the future. With the cap expected to drop considerably next season, Walsh's dreams of adding two stud free agents has become a fantasy. Unless the Knicks can move Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries for an expiring contract this season, they just won't have the money to pay two elite free agents. So given the Knicks' general lack of talent, who is the other potential superstar that could lure a free agent to New York? Walsh said, matter-of-factly, Gallinari. Gallinari spent most of his rookie season resting a bad back and Walsh was ripped for passing on Eric Gordon and Brook Lopez for Gallinari. But Walsh felt like Gallinari was a special player -- another sweet-shooting European forward a la Dirk Nowitzki. If Gallinari could show his potential this season, Walsh reasoned, he has enough star potential to lure an elite free agent this summer. Three games into the season, Gallanari is making Walsh look like a prophet. He's averaging 22.7 ppg. He's already drained 18 threes and is shooting 50 percent from behind the arc. He's actually a decent defender. Not bad for a 21- year-old kid basically in his rookie season. While three games doesn't make a season, Walsh has to be pleased with what he's seeing. If Gallanari can keep it up, the Knicks may have an important key to winning the free agent sweepstakes this summer. |
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In an ESPN.com article titled "Is Knicks' dream scenario still possible?" Chad Ford Breaks down the Knicks options now that the 2010 salary cap is projected to be $13-$14 Million lower than expected: Option 1: Clear More Cap Space This option could be dubbed "Mission Impossible II." Walsh has been working furiously this summer to move Curry and/or Jeffries for contracts that expire next summer. It's highly unlikely he can move Curry. Jeffries is a little more realistic. But if he could trade both of them, he could clear an extra $18 million in room and have around $40 million to play with next summer. If he can make it happen, the Knicks would be back on track to be a major player for LeBron. Of course, this option comes with a few major caveats. The first is that the Knicks would have only four players under contract going into next summer. They'd have to spend their $40 million on eight players ... not two or three. But theoretically, at least, they could give two max deals and sign the rest of the team with the $6 million to $8 million that remained. The second caveat is that this would mean they likely would lose Lee and Robinson -- weakening the team even further.
Option 2: Lower Your Sights If Walsh can't move Curry or Jeffries, the Knicks should be somewhere between $21 million and $23 million under the cap going into next summer if they waive both Lee and Robinson. However, they'd have just six players under contract. That's still enough room to sign one elite player like LeBron. However, they'd have roughly just $5 million to $7 million to sign five other players. Would LeBron really come with such a weak supporting cast? Of course, LeBron, Bosh and Dwyane Wade aren't the only free agents available. As I detailed in my sneak peek at the free-agent class of 2010, there are a lot of good players available. But would any of them come to the Knicks? Kobe Bryant and Joe Johnson are talking extensions with their clubs. Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki are likely to stay put. Restricted free agents like Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay are notoriously difficult to steal away because their home teams have the right to match any offer. That leaves a few players like Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer, who seem unhappy where they are. Both players are very good, but they can't single-handedly rebuild a team -- and given their injury history, I'm not sure you'd want them to. Or the Knicks can try to use their cap space in trades. With the luxury-tax threshold also decreasing significantly next year, Walsh should encounter a number of desperate GMs trying to shed payroll to avoid the tax. The problem with that strategy is that it's really a crapshoot. It's hard to predict, ahead of time, what players will be available to build your team. Option 3: Stick With What You Have This is an unpopular option, but it may be the most realistic for the Knicks. With little chance of clearing big cap room next summer and few other good options left on the table if LeBron, Bosh and Wade say no, New York may have to be patient. If the team can sign Lee and Robinson to reasonable contracts, money will be available to add a player or two via free agency while keeping the young core intact. In the summer of 2011, the team will have another shot at free agency when Curry and Jeffries come off the books. A number of interesting players, including Tony Parker and Yao Ming, will be free agents. Maybe by then the Knicks' young players will start showing some promise and Walsh will have an easier sell to a veteran. Lets hope Donnie has some magic left...
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