Chad Ford
ESPN's Chad Ford breaks down the game plan and rumors they've heard for how the Knicks can land LeBron: It's the question the NBA world has been debating since Donnie Walsh took over the New York Knicks in April 2008 and vowed to clear salary-cap space to lure free agents to the Big Apple: Do the Knicks have a realistic shot at landing LeBron James? Twenty-five months later, we still don't know. We know about the Cavaliers' built-in advantages when it comes to keeping James, even if he chooses to become a free agent this summer, as expected: He is a local hero for a winning team, and in Cleveland he can make a higher salary for more years than elsewhere. We know that the Bulls can make the case to LeBron that his future would be brightest in Chicago, given their young, athletic talent -- and that the Nets can say the same of New Jersey and Brooklyn, with a Russian billionaire and a hip-hop legend able to offer a unique combination of international appeal and street cred. And we know that Miami Heat president Pat Riley is cooking up a plan to keep his own superstar, Dwyane Wade, while adding another star or two, with a wish list that starts with LeBron. What we don't know yet is whether the Knicks can successfully use the bright lights of New York to trump those other teams in the contest for LeBron's services. But here's one thing we do know now, thanks to a well-placed source with knowledge of the Knicks' thinking: exactly how the Knicks will try to lure LeBron. According to the source, the Knicks have not contacted any prospective free agents or their agents, given the NBA's strict rules on tampering with players on other teams. But the Knicks have been plotting their strategy for more than two years, and now they're ready to make their move on July 1 -- to enact their game plan to get LeBron. And it's not only LeBron who interests the Knicks, according to the source -- they are also very interested in Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, as you'll see below. When the Knicks brass makes its pitch to LeBron and his team of advisors, the source says these will be the talking points: 1. "You can play alongside another superstar." The Knicks are projected to have about $34 million in salary-cap space, which should allow them to sign two free agents at max dollars -- with the second star being Bosh, ideally, according to the source. The Knicks also have their sights on Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Therefore, Plan A would be to pair James and Bosh, Plan B would be Wade and Bosh, and Plan C would be James and Wade. Why is Bosh part of Plan A and Plan B? Wouldn't the Knicks rather have megastars LeBron and D-Wade? While the Knicks greatly admire Wade and are very interested in him, the source said the Knicks believe that Bosh would be the ideal partner for James (or Wade), allowing New York to pair an elite playmaker with an elite big man with shooting range. Said the source, "I'm sure LeBron and Wade would figure out a way to play together, but it's not an ideal fit. Bosh would be a perfect complement to both of those guys because of his ability to stretch the floor." Of course, the Knicks realize that acquiring Bosh is no sure thing. But if he doesn't stay in Toronto, Bosh will want to work out a sign-and-trade with the Raptors and another team, with the Knicks a top candidate -- as I reported Friday, New York is one of five teams on Bosh's wish list. Even if Bosh does decide that New York is his top choice, that doesn't mean it will be easy for the Knicks to execute their plan. Knicks free agent David Lee would almost certainly have to be involved, meaning he would need to agree on contract terms and a move to Toronto. And as Chris Sheridan has written, working out the timing of all this maneuvering might be very tricky. While the Knicks will target James first, they are no less interested in Wade, according to the source. They recognize that LeBron is three years younger, more versatile and more durable, but Wade's championship pedigree and scoring prowess make him just as appealing, for different reasons. Said the source, "If you're trying to win championships for the next five years, I think you go with LeBron. But if you were to pick one player to try to win it with immediately, Wade may be the better choice. You can't go wrong with either guy." So what happens if LeBron leaves the Knicks in limbo? What if Wade and Bosh are ready to sign up while LeBron ponders his decision? When I asked the source, he said the Knicks had discussed that possibility and would not hesitate: "If Wade and Bosh committed quickly, and LeBron was still unsure, I think you'd have to go ahead and move on. It's too much of a risk to keep players of that caliber hanging." And what happens if James or Wade wants to join the Knicks but Bosh doesn't, and if James and Wade aren't a package deal? Plan D is Dirk -- more precisely, pairing James or Wade with Dirk Nowitzki, who is expected to opt out of his contract with the Dallas Mavericks, as reported Saturday by Marc Stein. 2. "You'll have a good supporting cast." The source said that Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni believes that the ideal way to maximize the effectiveness of LeBron or Wade is to put him in a role similar to that of Magic Johnson with the Showtime Lakers. "Both of these guys [James and Wade] are at their best when they have the ball in their hands," the source said. "While neither guy has played point guard for most of their career, that's the right position to put them in." The idea is to let LeBron or Wade handle the ball and surround them with long, athletic players who can spread the floor, opening up the lane for penetration and kickouts. In a column last week, John Hollinger used a statistical breakdown to describe a similar strategy, and the Knicks concur. Looking for young and talented teammates? Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler are a good start. "Both guys are incredible, willing passers," the source said. "What you want to do is open up the floor for them and let them penetrate. If the defense collapses you need a number of players around them that can make them pay." The Knicks, according to the source, believe that the supporting cast in place is ideally suited to the task, particularly if the Knicks can bring in James (or Wade) and Bosh. The face-up skills of Bosh would be a key part of the equation, but the team is also very high on several young holdovers, according to the source. In particular, the Knicks believe 21-year-old Danilo Gallinari, who was second in the NBA in 3-pointers made (186-for-488, 38.1 percent), and 23-year-old Wilson Chandler, a slashing wing player who shot 52.4 percent on field goals inside the arc, would thrive alongside a star playmaker. And while 24-year-old rookie Toney Douglas isn't a pure point guard, he is a 38.9 percent shooter from 3-point range and would be needed more for his marksmanship and defense than his ballhandling. With Bosh in the middle, Gallinari at the 4, LeBron or Wade alongside Chandler on the wing, and Douglas at the point, the Knicks believe they could be a 55-win team next season, said the source. But would that core be enough? Probably not, but the Knicks have also worked on a plan to build their bench, according to the source. The Knicks are very high on 22-year-old swingman Bill Walker, obtained from Boston at the February trade deadline. In March and April, Walker thrived, averaging 12.7 points per game in 28.7 minutes and shooting 44.0 percent on 3-pointers. To help fill out the roster, the team is eager to move the expiring contract of Eddy Curry -- $11.3 million for next season -- in exchange for a couple of veterans on longer contracts, according to the source. The Knicks are also hoping, said the source, that LeBron, Wade and/or Bosh will be able to recruit a few veterans willing to play on minimum contracts for a chance at the title. The source said that one target would be the Suns' Grant Hill. The Knicks tried to woo Hill to New York last summer, but he ultimately decided to re-up with Phoenix. Hill can opt out of his contract this summer, and the Knicks are hopeful he will bolt Phoenix if the Suns are unable to re-sign free agent Amare Stoudemire. While Hill would have to take a pay cut in New York (he's set to make $3.4 million next season if he doesn't opt out), the thinking, said the source, is that Hill might believe the chance to play alongside superstars and win a championship would be worth the loss in income. Other veterans the Knicks might be able to get on the cheap include Brad Miller, Joe Smith, Earl Watson, Kurt Thomas, Rafer Alston, Quentin Richardson and Fabricio Oberto. And look for the Knicks to scour the market overseas for young Americans who have excelled in Europe. 3. "You'll be working with a coach and an organization that can win." The source told me that the Knicks plan to use D'Antoni as their chief recruiter during the period. The source believes that when D'Antoni discusses X's and O's with free agents, they'll be persuaded he can maximize their talents. "If you look at the Cavs and LeBron," the source said, "they had the wrong philosophy from front office to head coach. They tried to put some shooters around him and tried to make the pieces fit, but the focus was almost entirely on defense, and Mike Brown ultimately preferred those players. It put enormous pressure on LeBron to be the Cavs' total source of offense every night. Most nights, they were really successful, but I think it's taken a toll on LeBron." As he showed in four highly successful seasons in Phoenix, D'Antoni wants players to push the ball and make plays. Because it involves a lot of freedom, running and shooting, with little micromanaging, the D'Antoni style of play is very popular with players -- especially those who have the talent to make it work. "There's no secret that Chris Duhon wasn't as happy playing [in the D'Antoni system] as Steve Nash was," the source said. "But Duhon couldn't really run the system. Steve could and so could LeBron and Wade." Likewise, the Knicks also plan to show players a revamped, more professional organization, said the source. In his two years, Walsh has streamlined and upgraded the front office, invested in state-of-the-art equipment and hired a world-renowned training staff. "One big sell to players is the training staff," the source said. "One of the reasons Nash and Hill re-signed in Phoenix was because their staff did a great job of keeping them healthy. The longer you extend these players' careers, the more money they make." 4. "You can own the world's greatest city, the basketball mecca." Despite the central place the Knicks, New York and Madison Square Garden hold in basketball lore, New York hasn't celebrated an NBA championship in 37 years. That's what might make the Knicks' final selling point the most compelling of all, according to the source. "Whoever can come in and win a championship in New York will own the city," the source said. "No one can replace Michael Jordan in Chicago, no matter how many titles you win. The Heat are coming off a recent championship and the city is far from the most rabid when it comes to basketball. I think there are more Knicks fans in Miami than Heat fans. "If someone can come in here and do what no one has been able to do for decades, their legacy is complete. That matters to players and [the Knicks] are going to make sure they know it."
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ESPN did a story regarding the future outlook of all the teams in the NBA using some crazy math, long story short, they say odds are against the Knicks and Donnie's master plan of rebuilding. ESPN Reports: 21. New York Knicks | Future Power Rating: 465 PLAYERS-----MANAGEMENT-----MONEY-----MARKET-----DRAFT The assumption for the past year or so has been that the Knicks' future is really bright. But a closer examination reveals that assumption may have been little more than wishful thinking. Yes, the Knicks have a lot of money to spend in 2010 and an owner, James Dolan, who is eager to write the checks. Yes, New York is one of the top player destinations in the NBA, for the city itself, for the MSG atmosphere and for the endorsement possibilities. Yes, they have the most player-friendly coach in the league, Mike D'Antoni, whose fun, up-tempo style of play is something many players crave -- and D'Antoni also has strong personal relationships with potential free agents LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant and Chris Bosh, thanks to his stint as an assistant coach on Team USA. And yes, GM Donnie Walsh is a legend who, once upon a time, helped turn the Pacers into a championship contender. But here's the problem: The Knicks' current roster is a mess, and it won't be easy to fill in all the potholes, even with an expected $25 million in cap room. Our assumption here is that New York won't land LeBron James (if that changes, they'll shoot up these ratings) and will probably have a summer haul more akin to what the Pistons did last summer. Two solid free agents would be a start. But what about the supporting cast? Danilo Gallinari looks promising. Wilson Chandler is a contributor. Jordan Hill might help down the road. David Lee and Nate Robinson could also be part of the core, but both are unrestricted free agents next summer and their future with the team is seriously in doubt. Factor in this, as well: Utah owns the Knicks' 2010 first-round draft pick, likely a high lottery pick. (Ouch!) So all in all, it's unlikely we'll see the Knicks' fortunes change as dramatically as some expect from 2010 to 2013. Playoff team? Plausible. Contender? Not so much. First, I do like the call out of *if* LeBron comes this changes dramatically. The thing that bothers me about this is they basically list all the reason players will come here in 2010 and in 2011, and then say "but they probably won't come" and give no explanation. Doesn't make much sense to me. The list out the draw of the city, the endless supply of money, the most cap room in the league, one of the most player friendly coaches in the league who has strong relationships with the top free agents, and some promising young players... Those are some pretty compelling agruments, maybe they don't factor into the voodoo math, but I think they will play a large role in 231 days.
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Good article by Chad Ford on the future of the Knicks and Gallanari's potential impact: Knicks GM Donnie Walsh said something to me this summer that I haven't been able to get out of my head. Walsh said that the future of the Knicks lies with Danilo Gallinari ... not a certain free-agent-to-be superstar in Cleveland that Walsh can't talk about. From Walsh's perspective having the cap room to lure a free agent wasn't going to be enough to lure a top talent to New York. Nor was having the most player-friendly coach in the league, Mike D'Antoni. The best players in the league want to play with other great players, Walsh reasoned. The Knicks need at least one other potential superstar on their roster to help convince a top-tier free agent that New York has a shot at winning in the future. With the cap expected to drop considerably next season, Walsh's dreams of adding two stud free agents has become a fantasy. Unless the Knicks can move Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries for an expiring contract this season, they just won't have the money to pay two elite free agents. So given the Knicks' general lack of talent, who is the other potential superstar that could lure a free agent to New York? Walsh said, matter-of-factly, Gallinari. Gallinari spent most of his rookie season resting a bad back and Walsh was ripped for passing on Eric Gordon and Brook Lopez for Gallinari. But Walsh felt like Gallinari was a special player -- another sweet-shooting European forward a la Dirk Nowitzki. If Gallinari could show his potential this season, Walsh reasoned, he has enough star potential to lure an elite free agent this summer. Three games into the season, Gallanari is making Walsh look like a prophet. He's averaging 22.7 ppg. He's already drained 18 threes and is shooting 50 percent from behind the arc. He's actually a decent defender. Not bad for a 21- year-old kid basically in his rookie season. While three games doesn't make a season, Walsh has to be pleased with what he's seeing. If Gallanari can keep it up, the Knicks may have an important key to winning the free agent sweepstakes this summer. |
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In an ESPN.com article titled "Is Knicks' dream scenario still possible?" Chad Ford Breaks down the Knicks options now that the 2010 salary cap is projected to be $13-$14 Million lower than expected: Option 1: Clear More Cap Space This option could be dubbed "Mission Impossible II." Walsh has been working furiously this summer to move Curry and/or Jeffries for contracts that expire next summer. It's highly unlikely he can move Curry. Jeffries is a little more realistic. But if he could trade both of them, he could clear an extra $18 million in room and have around $40 million to play with next summer. If he can make it happen, the Knicks would be back on track to be a major player for LeBron. Of course, this option comes with a few major caveats. The first is that the Knicks would have only four players under contract going into next summer. They'd have to spend their $40 million on eight players ... not two or three. But theoretically, at least, they could give two max deals and sign the rest of the team with the $6 million to $8 million that remained. The second caveat is that this would mean they likely would lose Lee and Robinson -- weakening the team even further.
Option 2: Lower Your Sights If Walsh can't move Curry or Jeffries, the Knicks should be somewhere between $21 million and $23 million under the cap going into next summer if they waive both Lee and Robinson. However, they'd have just six players under contract. That's still enough room to sign one elite player like LeBron. However, they'd have roughly just $5 million to $7 million to sign five other players. Would LeBron really come with such a weak supporting cast? Of course, LeBron, Bosh and Dwyane Wade aren't the only free agents available. As I detailed in my sneak peek at the free-agent class of 2010, there are a lot of good players available. But would any of them come to the Knicks? Kobe Bryant and Joe Johnson are talking extensions with their clubs. Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki are likely to stay put. Restricted free agents like Rajon Rondo and Rudy Gay are notoriously difficult to steal away because their home teams have the right to match any offer. That leaves a few players like Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer, who seem unhappy where they are. Both players are very good, but they can't single-handedly rebuild a team -- and given their injury history, I'm not sure you'd want them to. Or the Knicks can try to use their cap space in trades. With the luxury-tax threshold also decreasing significantly next year, Walsh should encounter a number of desperate GMs trying to shed payroll to avoid the tax. The problem with that strategy is that it's really a crapshoot. It's hard to predict, ahead of time, what players will be available to build your team. Option 3: Stick With What You Have This is an unpopular option, but it may be the most realistic for the Knicks. With little chance of clearing big cap room next summer and few other good options left on the table if LeBron, Bosh and Wade say no, New York may have to be patient. If the team can sign Lee and Robinson to reasonable contracts, money will be available to add a player or two via free agency while keeping the young core intact. In the summer of 2011, the team will have another shot at free agency when Curry and Jeffries come off the books. A number of interesting players, including Tony Parker and Yao Ming, will be free agents. Maybe by then the Knicks' young players will start showing some promise and Walsh will have an easier sell to a veteran. Lets hope Donnie has some magic left... |
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